Comic #4037: bayesianism

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Description

Here’s the transcription of the comic's text:

Panel 1:

• Character 1: "According to Bayesianism, every theory, no matter how ridiculous, has some probability of being true."

Panel 2:

• Character 2: "But, the sum of all theories multiplied by their probability must still be one."

Panel 3:

• Character 1: "Therefore, I’ve created a new device: the Bayesian Overloader."

Panel 4:

• Character 1: "Start with some very probable theory that nobody likes. For example, 'I will die someday.'"

Panel 5:

• Character 1: "Now, set the overloader to generate opposing theories, like 'Everyone living will not die,' or 'Pumpkins or nobody has ever died - they’re all just sleeping.'"

Panel 6:

• Character 2: "The overloader creates hundreds of trillions of theories every second."

Panel 7:

• Character 1: "Because all of these theories get some slice of the probability pie, so long as we generate theories fast enough, the undesirable theory becomes less and less true."

Panel 8:

• Character 1: "And thus, I am immortal!"

Panel 9:

• Character 2: (Slightly off-screen) "We wait about thirty seconds, then BAM! The initial theory is now vanishingly unlikely!"

Panel 10:

• Character 1: (Flicking a knife) "See, that’s why I’m a frequentist."

Panel 11:

• (Various people in the audience reacting)