Comic #3964: election-probability

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Here’s the text transcription from the comic:

Panel 1: Kid: "Dad, I think your candidate is going to lose today's primaries." Dad: "Nonsense."

Panel 2: Dad: "There are three states voting today. Her opponent has a 60% chance to win each of them." Kid: "But, that means his chance of winning all three is 60% of 60% of 60%, which is 21.6%."

Panel 3: Dad: "Since probabilities have to sum to 100%, and there are only two people running, my candidate has a 78.4% chance of winning all three states."

Panel 4: Kid: "Whooooaa…" Other Kid: "Yep."

Panel 5: Kid: "Mom, you were all wrong about probability." Mom: "At least when I go to kill him, he won't have predicted it."

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